Good, keep waiting!
This weekend is exhilarating! A shares have been "rising tone" in WeChat, micro-blog and other social media. Several positive information is as follows:
1, Trump called the trade war "very close" to an end. US President Trump said on 11 th that he believed that the US and China were "very close" to end the trade war, and that the agreement reached between the two sides would benefit both the United States and China and the whole world.
2, U.S. stocks soared on Friday night, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 1.21%, Apple Corp's share price reached a record high, and the FTSE A50 of overseas transactions rose 0.56%.
3, the "Macao stock exchange plan" has been reported to the central government. On October 12th, He Xiaojun, director of the Guangdong Provincial Bureau of local financial supervision, said that the Macao stock exchange plan had been submitted to the Central Committee, and the Guangzhou futures exchange estimated that it would be approved by the end of this year.
Three major financial signals. From the A share market on Friday, some sensitive funds have taken action. As a market weathervane, brokerage stocks rose significantly on Friday, while the capital in the North continued to increase after the holiday, and the late Friday was a large net inflow; the Shanghai 50 bullish option doubled on Friday.
For the next market, the CITIC Securities strategy of the securities broker said that A shares are still in the second round of this year's rise. Internal and external factors can strengthen the actions of A shares, catalyzing the monthly rebounding and open the last multi window in the year. The index is expected to hit the highest level in the year (3288 points).
Heavy profits continue: Trump called the trade war "very close" to an end.
Let's take a look at the good points of the weekend and improve the market expectations considerably. First of all, the Sino US trade frictions affecting the A-share market over the past year have made substantial progress, and Trump said that "very close" ended. Secondly, the most immediate thing about tomorrow's opening is that the US stocks rose sharply on Friday night after the closing of the A shares, and the Macao stock exchange also reported the possible approval of the central and Guangzhou futures exchanges on the weekend.
First, Trump said the trade war between China and the United States was "very close". US President Trump said on 11 th that he believed that the US and China were "very close" to end the trade war, and that the agreement reached between the two sides would benefit both the United States and China and the whole world.
Trump answered questions from Chinese and foreign reporters at the Oval Office on the afternoon of the US China trade consultation. In response to Xinhua's questions, he said, "I think we are very close (to end the trade war). I think this is a very important stage. "
Trump also mentioned in the question and answer process that he was pleased to see that the Sino US economic and trade consultations achieved substantive first stage results, which is a great benefit to the United States, China and the world. It is hoped that the two sides will work hard to make sure the text of the first phase of the agreement as early as possible and continue to promote subsequent consultations.
Second, US stocks rose on Friday night, and Apple's market value hit a new high. The overseas market is also warm and frequent. On Friday night, the Jones index of the US stock market rose 1.21%, and the NASDAQ index rose 1.34%. The share price of Apple Corp, the leading stock of technology stocks and the market value of trillion dollars, rose 2.66%, closing at $236.21, and the share price hit a new high.
Third, the Macao stock exchange programme has been reported to the Central Committee. On October 12th, at the "eighth south of the Five Ridges forum" held in Guangzhou, He Xiaojun, the party secretary and director of the Guangdong provincial finance supervision and Administration Bureau, attended and delivered speeches. He Xiaojun said that the Macao stock exchange program has been reported to the central government, hoping to build the Macao stock exchange into the NASDAQ on the offshore RMB market. He also revealed that the Guangzhou futures exchange had already consulted the Department and estimated that it would be approved by the end of this year, and that the variety of the exchange would be related to carbon emissions.
The funding signals are obvious: Multi information shows that funds accelerated to market on Friday.
In fact, on Friday, multiple weathervane on the market has shown many signals.
1, the securities market of the market vane force.
The easing of trade talks anticipated that some sensitive funds began to move on Friday. The A stock market has become the leading indicator of the stock market of the capital vane. On that day, the broker index fell 0.6% from the morning, and it began to pull up before noon closing. It rose more than 2.6% in the afternoon, and eventually closed up 1.87%.
2, the northbound capital accelerated to inflow.
The northward capital, which is more sensitive to the direction of overseas wind, continues to increase in a week after the holiday, and accelerates the net inflow on Friday afternoon. Last Friday, north capital bought A shares of 4 billion 671 million yuan, the highest level in nearly a month, and showed an accelerating trend in the afternoon.
3, call option doubles every day.
As for the anticipation and response of the rising market, the highly leveraged SSE 50ETF option is very intense. Last Friday, one of the call options rose 102%, and the market rose more than 182%.
Leading securities companies sing more: Last window in the year
The index is expected to hit 3288 points.
The results of trade negotiations are conducive to improving the risk preference of the A share market. CITIC Securities strategy said that internal and external factors catalyzed monthly rebounding, opening the last multi window in the year, and the index is expected to hit the top of the year.
CITIC Securities strategy indicated that the Sino US economic and trade negotiations have achieved some results. The thirteenth round of Sino US economic and trade consultations held discussions on the issues of trade and agriculture and other areas of concern, and consulted the subsequent arrangements, and agreed to work together towards the final agreement. It is expected that the future evolution of Sino US divergence is expected to be positive feedback on this basis, stabilize foreign trade expectations and enhance RMB appreciation expectations. The phasing improvement of Sino US differences is conducive to improving the risk preference of the A share market.
In the view of CITIC Securities strategy, the A shares in September were repeatedly derived from the divergence of market liquidity and counter cyclical policies. These two expectations are being repaired; and the differences between China and the US have also improved. A shares are still in the second round of this year's rise, the fluidity of the consensus gradually condense, and external risk recovery and internal policy decisions can effectively stabilize the basic expectations, internal and external factors to strengthen A shares action can catalyze the monthly level rebound, open the last multi window in the year, the index is expected to hit the previous high (3288 points).
Haitong Securities strategy indicates that the 2733 point of the Shanghai composite index is the second wave rising point of the Shanghai Composite Index, which corresponds to the 3 wave of the wave theory. Responding to the doubts about the market's profitability: first, the stock recharge is more than 13 years, the production cycle is at the bottom, and two is that there is no need to worry about the impact of the drop in real estate investment, and infrastructure and consumption will hedge. At present, the reentry run is the layout stage. The acceleration of market needs to confirm that the fundamentals and policies are well oriented, often driven by banks.
Three main lines: Opportunities:
Technology brokerage three quarterly report event driven
A share market risk appetite increases, institutions are more optimistic about the flexibility of technology and securities companies, and the three quarterly report window period is also an important direction of the current stage; in addition, the weekend Macao stock exchange and the Guangzhou stock exchange news, or will drive the relevant concepts of the market.
1, bull market second wave, technology broker is better.
Haitong Securities strategy indicated that with the second wave of bull market rising, technology and securities companies were better. Historically, the rise of the bull market has always been driven up by the bank's driving index. But with the focus on the whole wave, the value chain will eventually grow up to sing, and "technology broker" is expected to become the leading industry.
For technology stocks, the industrial policy of policy faces is tilted to science and technology, and the initiatives such as innovation board and financing liberalization will drive VC/PE to inject incremental funds into technology enterprises. At the same time, with the promotion and application of new technologies such as 5G, the industry needs to pick up and generate new demand, increase orders, and promote ROE improvement. With the advent of the era of big equity, brokerage business is expected to become more diversified and become a comprehensive investment bank. The incremental reform of the capital market is constantly advancing, and regulation encourages big banks to increase their support for the financing of brokerages. The issuance of financial bonds and the increase of short - term financing are beneficial to reduce the cost of capital and increase the leverage ratio, so as to enhance ROE.
2, three quarterly market is still the short-term focus of the market.
Three quarterly disclosure has already begun. As of October 13th, all A shares of 715 A share listed companies have disclosed three quarterly earnings forecasts. According to the statistics of E company, 101 companies will release three quarter results next week (October 14th to October 20th).
Haitong Securities strategy indicates that the short-term market focus will continue to revolve around the three quarterly report. In the next stage, the A share market can be analogous to the February 2014 ~6 month, which is in a transitional period from a structural bull market to a comprehensive bull market. In the transition period, the market will be dominated by shocks, with a moderate increase in the tactical importance of undervalued inflation.
3, the Macao stock exchange and the Guangzhou stock exchange have attracted attention.
News of the Macao stock exchange and the progress of the Guangzhou stock exchange. Or will trigger the short-term speculation market of related concepts, the concept of broker, futures and Zhuhai local stocks or become the target of capital pursuit; the Guangzhou futures exchange will be related to carbon emissions, and carbon emission related stocks will also be concerned.
